Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 425 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AA 425 · DFW → CHA

departs 8:01 PM CT · arrives 10:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at CHA more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±4 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CHA?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ This flight has been late 44% of the time recently

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ CHA usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CHA

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.57 in

CHA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 425 · DFW → CHA

Odds over time

How late will it get to CHA?