Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 425 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 425 · DFW → CHA

departs 8:01 PM CT · arrives 10:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at CHA more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±5 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CHA?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 44% of the time recently

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↓ CHA usually runs smoothly

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.52 in

CHA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.2 mi Precip0.39 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 425 · DFW → CHA

Odds over time

How late will it get to CHA?