Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 458 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 458 · MIA → MSP

departs 9:22 PM ET · arrives 12:09 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±3 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↑ 9pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.50 in

MSP (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 458 · MIA → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?