Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 531 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 531 · DFW → TUL

departs 10:38 PM CT · arrives 11:47 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 29h before departure

Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±10 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TUL?

On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
14%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 2.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 10pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ TUL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip2.37 in

TUL (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility4.66667 mi Precip2.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 531 · DFW → TUL

Odds over time

How late will it get to TUL?