Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 531 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 531 · DFW → TUL

departs 10:38 PM CT · arrives 11:47 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TUL?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at TUL that day

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.35 in

TUL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 531 · DFW → TUL

Odds over time

How late will it get to TUL?