Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 535 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Yesterday

AA 535 · MIA → ATL

departs 6:20 PM ET · arrives 8:25 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ATL that day

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip1.25 in

ATL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 535 · MIA → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?