AA 863 · PVD → DCA

departs 6:00 AM ET · arrives 7:45 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ PVD is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

PVD (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 863 · PVD → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?