Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1427 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Yesterday

AS 1427 · SEA → SMF

departs 8:55 PM PT · arrives 10:48 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

55% chance · ±0 pts +27 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
42%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1427 · SEA → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?