Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 514SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tomorrow
AS 514 · PHX → PAE
departs 10:52 AM MT · arrives 1:54 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 28h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at PAE more than 15 minutes late?
12%chance · ±2 pts+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to PAE?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.