Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 514
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AS 514 · PHX → PAE
departs 10:52 AM MT · arrives 1:54 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 51h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at PAE more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
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How late will it get to PAE?
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On time or early
85%
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15–30 min late
5%
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30 min–1 hour late
7%
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1–2 hours late
2%
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Over 2 hours late
<1%
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Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.