Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 686SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AS 686 · SEA → PDX
departs 3:55 PM PT · arrives 4:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
33%chance · ±2 pts+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to PDX?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.