Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 968 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Yesterday

AS 968 · LIH → OAK

departs 1:06 PM HT · arrives 9:16 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to OAK?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at LIH that day

↑ Arrivals into OAK at that hour are often late

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ LIH usually runs smoothly

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at OAK that day

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.91 in

OAK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 968 · LIH → OAK

Odds over time

How late will it get to OAK?