Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 1294
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
B6 1294 · MCO → HPN
departs 7:52 PM ET · arrives 10:48 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 50%
Mon 10/5 41%
Fri 10/9 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at HPN more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±1 pts
−20 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HPN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −20 pts in 24h
−20 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at HPN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HPN?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HPN
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
HPN (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.