B6 2424 · MCO → DCA

departs 5:34 PM ET · arrives 7:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±0 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
25%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ 5pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ B6's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

DCA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

B6 2424 · MCO → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?