Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 404
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
B6 404 · SJU → RDU
departs 3:22 PM AT · arrives 7:01 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 35%
Sat 10/3 37%
Sun 10/4 39%
Mon 10/5 31%
Tue 10/6 27%
Wed 10/7 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from SJU are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJU
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.