Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1428
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
DL 1428 · JFK → MIA
departs 7:55 PM ET · arrives 11:37 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Wed 9/30 16%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 28%
Sat 10/3 20%
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 26 kt, 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day
↑
7pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.75 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.