Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1428
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 1428 · JFK → MIA
departs 7:59 PM ET · arrives 11:41 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Fri 10/2 38%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
DL's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 7,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.