DL 1454 · DCA → DTW

departs 5:29 PM ET · arrives 7:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.42 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1454 · DCA → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?