Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1454 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

DL 1454 · DCA → DTW

departs 5:29 PM ET · arrives 7:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±2 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at DCA that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

DTW (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.89 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1454 · DCA → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?