Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1638
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
DL 1638 · PBI → JFK
departs 7:59 PM ET · arrives 10:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 33%
Sat 10/3 25%
Sun 10/4 34%
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±3 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave PBI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PBI that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 40% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PBI (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.83 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.