Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1638
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 1638 · PBI → JFK
departs 7:57 PM ET · arrives 10:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Fri 10/2 44%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 34%
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6 28%
Wed 10/7 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±4 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave PBI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 40% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↓
DL's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PBI (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.20 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 5,867 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.