Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1643
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
DL 1643 · AUS → JFK
departs 6:00 PM CT · arrives 10:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 25%
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4 34%
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±9 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
49%
Arrive 1h+ late
23%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
49%
Yes 49%
No 51%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day
↑
6pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 5.66667 mi Precip 1.19 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.