Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1643 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

DL 1643 · AUS → JFK

departs 6:00 PM CT · arrives 10:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.24 in

JFK (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1643 · AUS → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?