Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1643
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 1643 · AUS → JFK
departs 5:15 PM CT · arrives 10:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Fri 10/2 37%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 34%
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±3 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
5pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↓
DL's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.29 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 5,867 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.