DL 1686 · PHL → DTW

departs 8:10 PM ET · arrives 10:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±4 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at DTW that day

↑ 8pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1686 · PHL → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?