Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1740
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
DL 1740 · JFK → MCO
departs 7:59 PM ET · arrives 11:19 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 31%
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
+14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
7pm departures from JFK are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.