Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1740
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 1740 · JFK → MCO
departs 7:59 PM ET · arrives 11:19 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 52%
Fri 10/2 39%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
7pm departures from JFK are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
DL's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 5,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.