Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1740 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

DL 1740 · JFK → MCO

departs 7:59 PM ET · arrives 11:19 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±5 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

MCO (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.29 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1740 · JFK → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?