Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2454
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
DL 2454 · TPA → LGA
departs 6:44 PM ET · arrives 9:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 51%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
69%
chance · ±0 pts
+28 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
69%
Leave 15+ late
68%
Arrive 1h+ late
38%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +28 pts in 24h
+28 pts
69%
Yes 69%
No 31%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +31 pts in 24h
+31 pts
68%
Yes 68%
No 32%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +25 pts in 24h
+25 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
30%
15–30 min late
32%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
31%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
6pm departures from TPA are often late
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.23 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.