Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2617
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
DL 2617 · IAH → MSP
departs 5:40 PM CT · arrives 8:32 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Wed 9/30 30%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 21%
Sat 10/3 19%
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±4 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from IAH are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at MSP that day
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.04 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.