Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2617
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 2617 · IAH → MSP
departs 5:40 PM CT · arrives 8:32 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 64%
Fri 10/2 25%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at IAH that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from IAH are often late
↓
DL's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,833 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.78 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.