Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2836
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
DL 2836 · ATL → MIA
departs 7:30 AM ET · arrives 9:30 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 8%
Sat 10/3 8%
Sun 10/4 10%
Mon 10/5 7%
Tue 10/6 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day
↑
MIA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.50 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.