Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2836
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 2836 · ATL → MIA
departs 7:25 AM ET · arrives 9:26 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/1 16%
Fri 10/2 9%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 10%
Mon 10/5 7%
Tue 10/6 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±2 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
MIA is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at ATL that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
DL's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.07 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.