Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2863
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
DL 2863 · DCA → MSP
departs 3:00 PM ET · arrives 4:49 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 22%
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.