Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2873
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
DL 2873 · DFW → MSP
departs 6:31 PM CT · arrives 9:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 47%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 37%
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
47%
chance · ±3 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
47%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 2.0 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
6pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.98 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.