Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2961
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
DL 2961 · MSP → DCA
departs 8:30 PM CT · arrives 11:56 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 18%
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±3 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DL's recent on-time record
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.