F9 1516 · DTW → BWI

departs 12:50 PM ET · arrives 2:26 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from DTW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.42 in

BWI (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 1516 · DTW → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?