Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1953
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
F9 1953 · BQN → MCO
departs 3:10 AM AT · arrives 6:01 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Wed 9/30 20%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 26%
Sat 10/3 24%
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave BQN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Other factors
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at BQN that day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
BQN (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.21 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.