F9 2505 · PHL → MCO

departs 6:06 PM ET · arrives 9:01 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 2505 · PHL → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?