Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2836
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
F9 2836 · TPA → PHL
departs 10:30 PM ET · arrives 1:09 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 50%
Sat 10/3 30%
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±1 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Visibility down to 2 mi, 0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at PHL that day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.57 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.