F9 4025 · MCO → ATL

departs 5:24 PM ET · arrives 7:25 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±4 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ 5pm departures from MCO are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.01 in

ATL (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4025 · MCO → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?