Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4025
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 4025 · MCO → ATL
departs 5:24 PM ET · arrives 7:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Fri 10/2 64%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 41%
Mon 10/5 40%
Tue 10/6 24%
Wed 10/7 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±4 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
4.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
38%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
5pm departures from MCO are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.19 in
ATL (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.