F9 4211 · ATL → AUS

departs 4:29 PM ET · arrives 6:02 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, 1.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ATL that day

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.74 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4211 · ATL → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?