Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4211
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
F9 4211 · ATL → AUS
departs 3:10 PM ET · arrives 4:39 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 58%
Fri 10/2 43%
Sat 10/3 39%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 24%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
68%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
68%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
5.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
68%
Yes 68%
No 32%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
27%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.16 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.28 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.