Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4726
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
F9 4726 · MCO → SJU
departs 11:17 PM ET · arrives 2:15 AM AT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 35%
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6 22%
Wed 10/7 13%
Fri 10/9 25%
Sat 10/10 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SJU at that hour are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
SJU (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.