Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3515
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
MQ 3515 · EYW → MIA
departs 11:28 AM ET · arrives 12:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 15%
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
34%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave EYW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +24 pts in 24h
+24 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 26 kt, 0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day
↑
0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at EYW that day
↑
MIA is busy at that time
↓
EYW usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
EYW (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.69 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.63 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.