Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3743
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
MQ 3743 · MIA → PNS
departs 5:51 PM ET · arrives 6:48 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 21%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 16%
Fri 10/9 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at PNS more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PNS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at PNS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PNS?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 1.75 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at MIA that day
↑
5pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PNS
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
PNS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 1.25 in
PNS (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.