Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3781
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
MQ 3781 · DFW → SAT
departs 5:26 PM CT · arrives 6:36 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 46%
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±0 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
36%
Cancelled
14%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 58% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −15 pts in 24h
−15 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
24%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
14%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,367 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 7.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day
↑
5pm departures from DFW are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 4.07 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 540 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 3.40 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.