Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3782
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
MQ 3782 · SAV → MIA
departs 6:22 PM ET · arrives 7:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 42%
Sat 10/3 33%
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave SAV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
Visibility down to 1.75 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at MIA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 0.13 mi forecast at SAV that day
Weather at each end
SAV (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 0.13 mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 1.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.