Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3787
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
MQ 3787 · DFW → MFE
departs 5:55 PM CT · arrives 7:32 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 24%
Sat 10/3 19%
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at MFE more than 15 minutes late?
65%
chance · ±11 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
65%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
14%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MFE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
65%
Yes 65%
No 35%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at MFE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
How late will it get to MFE?
On time or early
30%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
14%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 1.6 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
5pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MFE that day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.58 in
MFE (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.